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February is for Facebook - A love affair

Tuesday, 14 February 2012

Perhaps the best love story to emerge from the Facebook romance is the relationship between the social media site and the state of California. Facebook's IPO will thrust hundreds, potentially thousands into the stratosphere of wealth, and at least one - Mark Zuckerberg - into the ionosphere.

California finds itself the recipient of hundreds of millions of dollars in capital gains taxes, as well as 1% in income tax from every new millionaire, and will take a major step towards reconciling its $9.2 billion deficit.

But the love story is not entirely roses and chocolates; there's tension between the two as well. One of the wise investors in Facebook is the California State Teachers' Retirement System, and the tension is mounting over Facebook's corporate governance. The California State Teachers' Retirement System (CalSTRS) is uncomfortable with the amount of power Zuckerberg will retain with Facebook as a public entity, and with the rules in general. As it stands, the shareholders that arise from the IPO will get less than their share's worth of say in company actions. CalSTRS is also balking at the composition of Facebook's 'homogeneous' board of directors. They're petitioning the company for a more diverse board with both sexes represented, and for different rules for that board to follow.

A fickle love, too: comparisons are being drawn between the Facebook affair and Google's public premier in 2004. Google shares sold at $85 a piece, and its IPO garnered sales of roughly $1.67 billion and market capitalization over $23 billion. After its debut, 16 Google insiders alone owed state taxes amounting to as much as $380 million dollars. California revealed in the glory of its love, with declarations of glory, success, and an everlasting bond between the two. Facebook's launch will be at $76 per share, and its IPO is being advertised at $5 billion, with a stock market valuation anywhere from $70 billion to $110 billion, depending on who you ask and when you ask them, and the state is now touting its adoration on the social media site. 

Part of the problem with valuing Facebook's IPO is the proportion of shares that will be offered is ultimately unknown. If its valuation is close to $100 billion and $5 billion is the actual amount offered, only 5% of Facebook's shares will actually be sold. Will this be enough of a stock shortage to keep share prices high and revenues up? It's a bit of a nasty trick, if that is the plan. Further, the shares offered - and this is CalSTRS's argument - effectively withhold control from the public part of the public offering. Despite claiming democracy in its foundation and function, Facebook is restricting the actual impact individuals will have on its structure. 

So the love story between California and Facebook continues for the time being. As with California and Google, Elizabeth Aston's line may be most appropriate: "One's first love is always perfect until one meets one's second love." We shall see how long California's triumphant "Eureka!" will refer to Facebook. Until then, we won't know if we're looking at a romantic comedy or something akin to Shakespeare's story of woe between star-crossed lovers.

NABCAP Premier Advisor 2011

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